Friday 14 October 2011

Free Football Betting Tip:- Villarreal II v Girona *Over 2.5 Goals*

Villarreal II host Girona tonight in the Spanish Segunda Division.

Neither sides have got off to the starts they would have liked this season but the hosts will be the happier of the two sides picking up 10 points from their first 7 games.

Unlike England, in Spain reserve teams play in the same setup as their senior squads. The only rules are that they may not compete in the same league as their main team and cannot play in the Copa Del Ray.

So as long as the main Villarreal squad play their football in La Liga, this reserve squad will never gain promotion even if they went on to win the league.

Villarreal II are one of those reserve teams so are effectively made up of players, some young, some experienced players back from long term injury and some players simply out of favour.

I rarely will put money on the outright result on a match involving one of these reserve teams but the Goals markets always do interest me.

Especially when you read stats like this, Villarreal II have played 3 of their 7 games at home so far this season, those 3 games have involved a staggering 18 goals!

Their first a 3-4 defeat to Sabadell followed by a 3-3 draw with Guadalajara and then most recently  a 3-2 win over Gimnastic Tarragona.

Villarreal II have scored at least once in all of their last 14 games in all competitions.

They also only kept clean sheets in 2 of those 14 games and one of those was away from home.

They have the leagues top goal scorer in Joselu who has already bagged himself 6 goals and if he keeps it up the 20 year old  should earn himself a chance in the senior squad.

Their opponents today Girona have earned just 6 points so far from 7 games.

4 of those games have featured at least 3 goals and they also had a cup game in which they lost 5-1.

Girona have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their games so far this season which isn't the kind of record that looks set to change when a side that have scored in their 14 games comes to visit.

Away from home 4 of Girona's last 5 games in all competitions have gone over 2.5 goals.

Everything tonight points to another game featuring goals and so I am left scratching my head as to why the overs are priced so generously at 2.1 with the unders as low as 1.66 with some bookmakers.

What I feel it is however is the fact that last season Villarreal II really struggled for goals, especially in the latter half of the season, they have therefore gained a reputation with bookies as a low scoring home side.

The thing is with reserve sides, each year the teams differ so much, youngsters mature, players go out on loan, more players break through the system.

In short, reserve sides are usually very different sides on a year on year basis.

For example their leading star player who I mentioned earlier played just 130 minutes last season, obviously he was not matured enough at the time to fit into the starting 11 however look at him this season.

I don't feel the bookies take all of these kinds of things into account when they are compiling their odds and therefore the 2.1 on offer for over 2.5 goals in this match today shows some fantastic value, I would personally price this at at about 1.8 with the under's at least evens.

Take the 2.1 for Over 2.5 Goals with William Hill.

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