Fluminense will welcome Cortiba to Rio tonight in a big game in the Brazilian Serie A.
This is a massive game for both clubs in which a draw would not suit either team.
Fluminense find themselves currently just 4 points outside of International qualification with a game in hand, which is this one tonight.
A win would see them close that gap on Sao Paulo and Flamengo to just 1 point which is the kind of position they nedd to be in with just 9 games left of the season after tonight.
Its so tight at the top of this league however that Fluminense will not have written their chances off of winning this league with only 7 points in it.
The hosts were desperately unlucky to not come home with all 3 points in their last game, they led 1-2 away at Flamengo only for a lapse of concentration in the last 3 minutes of the game to go and concede twice and lose 3-2.
That has been Fluminense all over this season, they have no problem scoring goals, especially at home, but they are so samba in defence that they often destroy all their good attacking performances by leaking goals at the back.
This is obvious when you take a look at their home record this season, whilst it has been extremely good in the fact that they have 10 of their 14 home games, they have failed to keep clean sheets in 9 of those games.
In fact in their last 5 home games alone they managed 11 goals whilst conceding 7 at the same time.
You can be sure they will attack at home though, they have scored in all of their last 9 home games and tonight will be no different I am sure.
4 out of 5 of their last league games have all gone over 2.5 goals with 3 of these games featuring at least 4 goals.
At home 5 of their last 6 have all gone over the same total.
They have some great attackers in the likes of Fred, Rafael Moura and Rafael Sobis who have scored a combined 23 goals so far this season.
Add to this Portuguese veteran Deco in midfield, whilst his best days are behind him, he is still a constant threat to opponents on the ball.
Their opponents today are in the same sort of boat.
Cortiba are 10th in the league yet still only 8 points off of International qualification, they need a win tonight to reduce that gap to 5 points.
A draw would be no good, it wouldn't give them a realistic chance of closing such a gap over just 9 games, especially with 11 other teams above and below them all in the same mix, so expect them to come out tonight looking for that win.
That will suit Fluminense's style of play and I expect to see a very open end to end game which should promise one thing, Goals!
Whilst Cortiba's recent games are no as promising in the goal department as their opponents, with 3 going over 2.5 goals and 3 going under in their last 6, this is the kind of game that will just draw it out of them.
Away from home though they have still managed to concede 9 times in their last 5 games and managing to score 4 themselves.
Also this season they won at Santos 2-3 and Mineiro 1-3 so they are more then capable of getting the job done when needed.
Cortiba have plenty in their frontlines to worry the Fluminense defence, the likes of Marcos Aurelio has been on fantastic form this season with 8 goals to his name and his compatriot Bill has fired in 10 goals.
Cortiba have shown they can be deadly on the counter attack this season and that is the kind of tactic they will most likely play tonight.
With Fluminense also so desperate for the win and in front of their home fans as they usually do they will have many men in front of the ball and when Cortiba retain the ball that is when they will be most deadly against an already very vulnerable Fluminense backline.
I expect goals tonight and I feel over 2.5 goals is very generously priced at 1.9 with Paddy Power, especially when so many bookies are as low as 1.75 in the very same market.
Nice one leroy . More profits banked.
ReplyDelete