Finland host Sweden in this European Championship qualifier this evening.
A good night for us last night with 2 out of 2 and a healthy profit.
For Finland fans tonight this will be their own version of England vs Germany as they host Sweden.
Their has always been a hot rivalry between the two nations and Finland will be looking for revenge as the reverse fixture finished 5-0 to the hosts in Stockholm.
For me tonight the visitors are definitely the strongest of the two sides although I do feel Finland have improved a lot over the course of the last year or so.
Tonight however the 1x2 market does not interest me and I turn my attention to goals.
So far in this competition 3 out of 4 of Finland's home games have beaten the 2.5 goals mark.
They lost their first game of the campaign to Hungary 1-2 and then thrashed San Marino 8-0 in their second game.
Finland followed up that win with another 4-1 thumping over Moldova, ok not two of the most difficult teams to beat I know but it shows they can put the ball in the back of the net if chances are created and tonight they will be fired up more then ever to score goals.
The only home game that didn't finish over 2.5 goals was their most recent home defeat to Netherlands 0-2.
I actually tipped Netherlands to beat the -1.5 handicap in that game so I did tune in to watch and once the Dutch went a goal up they simply sat back and defended which is unlike them, if they carried on attacking the way they were in the first half of the game I feel Finland would have conceded more then twice and may have even got on the score sheet themselves.
If either side go a goal up early tonight I cant envisage the same happening tonight, the crowd will play a big factor in tonight's game and it should be an open attacking game.
Sweden's last 7 games in this competition have all gone over 2.5 goals.
Away from home Sweden's last 4 games have all gone over the same mark and have involved 18 goals!
They lost 1-4 in Holland last October before travelling to Moldova and winning 1-4.
Most recently Sweden lost 2-1 in Hungary before travelling to San Marino and putting 5 past them.
Sweden have so much experience running through their squad and at an international level this makes a big difference in matches.
Unfortunately for Finland one of their best and most experienced players, defender Petri Pasanen is missing through injury and when you look at the Finland back line now it looks worryingly inexperienced.
Match that up to the Sweden attack with the likes of Ibrahimovic, Toivonen, Elmander and then Svensson and Larsson in midfield then you can see the Swedes have bags of it.
With all of the above in mind I feel this game just cries out goals and I feel the 1.96 from Pinnacle on offer for over 2.5 goals in this game is very generously priced with many bookies at just 1.8.
No comments:
Post a Comment